A vanishing world
By Marcel Côté
With I grew up in Malartic, a small town in northwestern Quebec. When I was a child, a sign at the edge of town proudly proclaimed its population to be 5,280. Today, only 3,051 people live in Malartic, a drop of more than 40%. The mines that gave birth to the town have closed and its only remaining industry is a sawmill.
Many towns are in the same boat as Malartic. With some exceptions in Ontario and BC, populations outside large cities are dwindling across Canada. In remote rural areas and less populous provinces, the decline is in the order of 1% a year.
Population growth is slowing down in all industrialized countries. The main reason is the birthrate has plunged since the ’60s. Immigration has taken over, but not quite. For the past 10 years, it has accounted for 60% of Canada’s population growth, with natural growth now representing no more than 40%.
Few immigrants settle in outlying areas, preferring big cities where there are more job opportunities. Toronto alone is host to almost half of all Canadian immigrants and 44% of its population was born outside Canada. (Anyone who says that immigration is bad for the economy or causes social problems should explain Toronto’s incredible success.)
To add to the woes of small towns, young people are heading to big cities in search of better jobs. Regional economies often rely on natural resources and agriculture where prices are in structural decline, supporting fewer jobs.
Population movements are having dramatic impacts on many regions throughout Canada. Towns and villages with dwindling populations are caught in a spiral of rising costs. Their already declining economies can no longer produce enough wealth to maintain community infrastructures, which in turn results in migration. Governments must increasingly supplement their financial needs through direct or indirect tax transfers.
Governments are trying to fight this growing trend. Across the country, more generous assistance programs are available in rural areas. But it will be difficult to reverse the depopulation of outlying regions and rural areas in general. In the face of global competition, their economies can no longer count on natural resources development, as prices can only get worse. They can’t count on the availability of cheap labour because, paradoxically, migration to large cities has caused a shortage of qualified manpower in these areas.
As a result, we are witnessing the gradual aging of small towns, and the withering of their economic base. industries of the future, highly dependent on knowledge, are opting to set up in big cities and their surrounding areas. The only attraction of remote regions is remoteness and what it implies — peace, and wide-open spaces, hardly at a premium as economic advantages.
Most regions facing depopulation are having trouble adjusting to their gradual marginalization. They are fighting to save such bygone industries as fishing, mining, sawmills and farming and to hold onto their young people. Unfortunately, it’s a losing battle.
In practical terms, rural areas have no choice but to adjust to their declining populations. Occasionally villages will shut down by merging with nearby towns. Main streets lose their functions, as stores close. Public services such as schools and hospitals are reorganized, which at times causes a crisis as people are afraid to lose their services. But as long as the population keeps decreasing, not much can be done about this.
Governments should be careful. There will always be pressure to save a school, restart a plant, decrease taxes, offer cheap electric rates, or subsidize infrastructure works an ailing town can’t afford. Promoters will brandish promises of job creation and angle for the region’s support in landing subsidies for their pet projects. But subsidies will not keep the regions afloat. Tax dollars can be better spent.
Young people should be encouraged to seek their fortune in cities. Rural towns and villages, remnants of yesteryear, should scale back. The forest will reclaim its own. regions will find their future in tourism and outdoor recreation.
This trend will have a tremendous impact nationwide and greatly affect all areas. You can count on 15 big cities and their surrounding areas to absorb most of the population growth Canada will witness in the next 50 years, and then more, as the rest of the country will see its population decline. Canadians must understand that the secular rural world it was used to is vanishing. To cope with this evolution, Canada must adapt and change its ways.
Marcel Côté is a partner at SECOR Inc. in Montreal |
